Central West weather: Unlikely chance of exceeding median rainfall levels | Video

DRIER DAYS: There is an 70-75 per cent chance the region will not exceed median rainfall levels. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
DRIER DAYS: There is an 70-75 per cent chance the region will not exceed median rainfall levels. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

THIS winter is predicted to be so warm and dry that there's at least a 70 per cent chance that the Central West will not exceed its median rainfall for the season.

The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) climate outlook for winter paints a grim picture for anyone hoping for good rainfall during the next three months.

There is a 75 per cent chance that areas around Dubbo, Parkes and Mudgee will not exceed median rainfall levels.

This drops slightly to 70 per cent for: Orange, Bathurst, Lithgow, Oberon, Blayney, Cowra and Young.

When it comes to temperatures, there is an 80 per cent chance that the entire Central West will exceed the median maximum temperature during winter.

WARMER DAYS: There is an 80 per cent chance that the median maximum temperature will be exceeded during winter. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

WARMER DAYS: There is an 80 per cent chance that the median maximum temperature will be exceeded during winter. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

BoM's manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins said the warm, dry conditions experienced in autumn will continue into winter.

"We're looking at drier than average conditions, [and] fairly high odds of getting below average rainfall," he said.

"Warmer than average days, pretty much right over the country, with odds greater than 80 per cent.

"But, in terms of nighttime temperatures, looking a little bit more towards average in the interior of the continent."

VIDEO: Bureau of Meteorology's manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins

Dr Watkins said there were two competing drivers behind the weather conditions.

"We're fairly close to El Nino conditions at the moment, not quite hitting the threshold but we are fairly close, that's forecast to ease away over the coming months," he said.

"It will be replaced by a positive Indian Ocean dipole which is a pattern that produces warmer and drier conditions."

Recent very cold conditions from an "Antarctic blast" bringing up snow and cold conditions are set to ease.

Chance of reaching above winter's median rainfall

  • Bathurst: Unlikely, 134mm
  • Blayney: Unlikely, 203mm
  • Cowra: Unlikely, 166mm
  • Dubbo: Unlikely, 124mm
  • Forbes: Unlikely, 118mm
  • Lithgow: Unlikely, 142mm
  • Mudgee: Unlikely, 143mm
  • Oberon: Unlikely, 157mm
  • Orange: Unlikely, 203mm
  • Parkes: Unlikely, 146mm
  • Young: Unlikely, 176mm