By Rabobank Australian beef production in 2025 is expected to come close to equalling production records set in 2024, Rabobank says in its newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2025. The annual report, by the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division, says the high beef production volumes are being matched by growing global demand – with the relatively-balanced market expected to support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers. Report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said successive favourable seasons – with the exception of ongoing significant dry areas in Victoria and southeast South Australia – have allowed Australian cattle numbers to build. “The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57 million tonnes) in Australian beef production,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. RaboResearch believes 2025 will continue to see high numbers of cattle turned off and, with continuing high carcase weights, production volumes are expected to remain high and close to the 2024 record. Fortunately for Australia, Mr Gidley-Baird said, other major beef-producing countries are expected to see a decline in production in 2025. “This creates demand for imports and reduces competition in Australian export markets, supporting demand for Australian beef,” he said. The outlook of high production balanced by growing global demand leads to the bank’s expectation that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively steady through the course of 2025 with some potential upside. “However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year, there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.” Australia’s domestic per capita beef consumption is assumed to drop slightly in 2025 due to ongoing economic pressures. “However, household incomes are forecast to increase by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), which will provide some support for beef consumption,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. Despite the Australian population forecast to rise by two per cent in 2025, RaboResearch projects a slight drop in per capita consumption, resulting in domestic beef consumption being steady in 2025 and therefore exports will continue to play an important role, accounting for 75 per cent of production. Mr Gidley-Baird said the distribution across export markets is expected to remain similar for Australian beef in 2025. “The US market, which consumed almost as much Australian beef as our domestic market in 2024, is expected to remain the largest market. This will predominantly be manufacturing beef,” he said. “And we expect Asian markets will be similar to 2024, that is with relatively weak but slowly improving demand.” Mr Gidley-Baird said global beef production is projected to be up slightly in Q1. However, RaboResearch expects it to contract through the rest of 2025 to be down two per cent compared to 2024. “The contraction in production is led largely by Brazil, down 550,000 tonnes or five per cent, but we are also expecting contractions in the US down 100,000 tonnes (one per cent) and China down 40,000 tonnes (0.5 per cent),” Mr Gidley-Baird said. He said the contraction in some of the world's largest beef producers and exporters in 2025 will support the Australian cattle market at a time where high production volumes need export markets to perform strongly. The RaboResearch analysis says the US continues to be the engine room of global beef markets. “The US market will again be the key global market in 2025,” Mr Gidley-Baird said, “driving strong import demand and higher prices.” RaboResearch believes the US sector is moving into a period of cattle-herd rebuilding, although any rebuild activity in 2025 will be minor. “This will support the Australian cattle market, with a continued need for imports and less competition in shared export markets such as Japan and South Korea,” the report said. Mr Gidley-Baird said the bank expects China’s beef imports to remain steady in 2025 and, given the state of the Chinese economy, “we believe any increase in imports will favour the lower price points of South American suppliers”. “Higher price points of US exports and more limited supplies will provide some opportunity for increased Australian volumes to Japan and South Korea, but with imports expected to remain steady we believe any increase in volumes will be limited,” he said. Cattle price outlook Mr Gidley-Baird said RaboResearch is anticipating steady Australian cattle prices with some upside in 2025. “Global beef demand is providing some upside, despite lower restocking demand and high production,” he said. Modelling indicates that the National Young Cattle Indicator should trade between 360c/kg and 425c/kg lwt (liveweight – the weight of a live animal) in 2025 with an average across the year of 409c/kg. “This would be a 23 per cent increase on the average price of 2024,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “And modelling for 2026 shows a range of 400c/kg to 420c/kg with an average across the year of 410c/kg.” The report said with Australian cattle inventory at high levels and generally favourable seasonal conditions across much of the country – recognising persisting dry conditions in Victoria, southern NSW and SE South Australia – restocking activity is lower than in 2020 to 2023. This means there is lower demand for restocking-type cattle (weaners and replacement cows and heifers), leading these price categories to be softer, Mr Gidley-Baird said. “On the other hand, a strong US market is supporting global demand and accommodating the historically-high Australian beef production. Seasonal conditions are assumed to be average in 2025 before becoming dry in 2026 with beef producer confidence remaining good through 2025 before dropping in 2026 with the change in season,” he said. Producer profitability Larger numbers of cattle to sell and higher prices are expected to generate higher cash receipts for Australian cattle producers through 2025. Mr Gidley-Baird said these higher receipts will offset the expected rise in costs, leading to a lift in farm cash income. “Cash costs are expected to rise in line with the 10-year trend with higher interest costs still being a factor after rising in 2024,” he said. “While cattle purchase costs are down after the highs of 2022.” With the assumption that 2026 could, overall, be a dry year, RaboResearch expects costs such as fodder and agistment may rise, although they could be offset by a rise in cash receipts if producers are forced to sell off higher numbers of cattle than normal. Mr Gidley-Baird said it will be “steady as she goes” – with beef producers expecting incomes to be the same in the year ahead.
