While rural Australia is desperate for rain there are patches of the Cowra Shire where grain growers still have hopes of average to above average yielding crops and lamb producers are receiving record prices.
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Elders Watt Robertson Agronomist Peter Watt says farmers are hoping for rain predicted for Friday.
“We talk in deciles which is groups of 10 years,” Mr Watt said of the current lack of rain.
“We’re running below decile one in that we’re in the worst two or three percent in 100 years of rainfall data.
“At decile one we’re in the bottom 10 per cent of years and we’re in the bottom that decile.”
Despite the current conditions Mr Watt says Cowra is fortunate the area has hung on until now.
“But we’ve been counting rainfall events on one hand,” he said.
“If there is a sweet spot in the area it is Morongla and Greenethorpe.”
In contrast Mr Watt said the rapidly declining area is north of the Belubula and west of Grenfell and probably west of Gooloogong.
“The Cowra shire, this precinct is hanging in there, that’s the good news but it looks like the drought is closing in on us.
“Everyone is hanging for this rain on Friday.,” Mr Watt said.
According to weatherzone.com.au there is 80 percent chance of Cowra receving between 5 and 10mm of rain on Friday with temperatures ranging from an overnight low of four degrees to a top daytime temperature of 21.
The rainfall event is forecast to occur statewide.
To date, Cowra has received 158mm this year compared with 244mm up until August 1 last year.
Cowra’s long term average for August is 35mm.
“We always seem to be hanging for rain, we’re living on hope a bit but it looks like a good chance of rain on Friday,” Mr Watt said.
“We’re in the situation where we can still pick our season up and run with it, we haven’t got to a point where things have crashed that badly that we can’t recover, except north of Canowindra.
“If we get appropriate rain we can still pick up average to slightly above average yields.
“As we push into mid to late August with low soil water levels, for farmers, it’s going to be be about how best to take advantage of their dry matter.
“Fortunately with stock prices where they are your best harvest might be carcass weight harvest, so cattle or sheep or lambs on your farms might be the best way to convert biomass to money,” Mr Watt is advising farmers.
“We’re doing numbers at the moment on what the potential is if we put stock on paddocks,” he said.
In terms of feed availability Mr Watt said Cowra is like many other areas is the state but the district can generate feed if it rains or farmers are irrigating.
“Most people fed stock to get themselves to the back end of July hoping that there would be some relief in August or September,” he said.
“Some farmers are pretty stretched out and hay supplies are coming from South Australia.
“Local sources are nearly expired and farmers are looking at hay coming from southern irrigation areas with hay well over $400 to $450 a tonne landed here.
“Even barley and oats, you’re not going to pay anywhere south of $400 a tonne.
“Demand is tight so prices obviously go up.”
In another positive Mr Watt said the “flip side is we’ve never seen better lamb prices”.
“You’re talking north of $8 a kilogram for lamb and farmers can contract so if they have some feed and do the numbers they can convert into lamb with some lambs putting on enough weight to make farmers $1 a day if they are on good feed.
“Farmers have to either lighten off, sell down, start making stepped decisions about lightening the load in response to how much feed they have or haven’t got.
“Farmers have to be actively thinking what’s my next step if and when it does rain.
“In this area we have forage options, we can sow right through August, September, October, it gets a bit tighter after that but there are forage opportunities that farmers can plant right up until almost Christmas.
“And anyone with lucerne on their properties, as soon as it rains they get instant feed, perennial crops will just recover but lucerne will show its true worth as soon as it rains.
“Farmers don’t have to plant it, it’s already there, it will just kick and go.
“And Anyone with irrigation, those people are looking to cover the gap, water is going everywhere at the moment as those farmers try to get lucerne up.
“They can’t cut it any earlier than October but the district has the luxury of allocation out of Wyangala Dam and a significant irrigation area that can hopefully produce some feed for this and other areas,” Mr Watt said.
In terms of support Mr Watt advises farmers that all of the support agencies are ready to assist.
“The LLS, the veterinarians, agribusiness, there are a lot of support agencies working with farmers to assist decision making as the situation declines,” Mr Watt said.
Agreed we are slow to go into drought and can pop out very quickly.
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