Here on the sidelines of the generation-long contest over Japanese Antarctic whaling, it's clear that years of arduous conservationist direct action have made a formidable difference.

So did all the brain power poured into diplomatic head-butting at the International Whaling Commission. Even the prospect of an unsavoury contest with the Australian government at the International Court of Justice may weigh on Japan.

But as Tokyo considers whether to abandon the hunt, the ounce that counts against the once mighty whaler may be in the hands of its people. Now there is clear internal support for leaving the past behind.

It's difficult to grasp the magnitude of tribulations facing our close North Asian friend today.

One small indication of the Japanese earthquake's effect on the whole nation can be found here. It's a very long list of seafood radioactivity inspection results.

At the same time as it deals with these after-effects, the Japanese government faces its share of global economic pain, and is led by a Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, even less popular than our own.

It seems amazing that Tokyo has had time to think about whaling at all. But it has held a formal review of the program's future after its fleet was hunted out of the Southern Ocean by Sea Shepherd last summer.

In the usual way of Japanese government, the review's outcomes were anonymously leaked. They show a majority, probably based in the hardline Fisheries Agency, refusing to yield to Sea Shepherd.

But in a significant departure, we found that a respected Japanese consumer advocate had been brought onto the panel. What was more she openly spoke to the ABC, rejecting the need for any more lethal "research".

Hisa Anan, a formidable looking woman with a patch of hair dyed flame red, is secretary-general of Japan's national consumer organisation, Shodanren.

Anan can be found commenting regularly about consumer issues in moderate, encouraging terms. In a country with few domestic pressure groups, these words have value.

There are other problems weighing on the government in its decision over whaling.

Whale meat stockpile statistics published earlier this year showed it was not selling. This means the cost of propping up the whaling fleet is blowing out at a time when all available government yen must be pressed into earthquake recovery.

The whalers' actual capacity to operate in the Antarctic is in doubt. Despite Fisheries Agency pleas, the Japan Coast Guard has decided it has no legal basis to send a vessel south against the more powerful activists.

And there are questions over the viability of the whaling ships themselves.

This month an International Maritime Organisation ban on the use of heavy fuel oil in the Antarctic came into force. The factory ship Nisshin Maru is fuelled by this oil, though as a "research" ship, under IMO rules it may be able to keep operating.

Then again, Australia is taking Japan to court for abusing the International Whaling Commission's "research" clause. At such a time would Tokyo have the appetite for using another loophole?

Just when the Japanese government will announce a decision is open to question.

Some argue it will wait until the last minute, effectively late November, to most inconvenience its opponents. Others say that either way, it is better done soon in order to minimise odium, rather than spend months raising anticipation.

In any case, Anan will have moved on to other issues. Japan has too much else to think about.

Andrew Darby is The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald Hobart correspondent.

Follow Environment on Twitter